Twins try to gain ground in Central in opener with Tigers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have an opportunity to gain some ground on the division-leading Detroit Tigers when the American League Central rivals begin a key three-game series tonight at the Metrodome.

The Twins presently trail the first-place Tigers by three games in the standings, with the hard-charging Chicago White Sox a half-game in front of Minnesota for second.

Minnesota will be entering this evening's clash with some momentum after taking the final two tests of a three-game series at Kansas City earlier this week. In Wednesday's rubber match, Glen Perkins threw seven effective innings and Michael Cuddyer homered and knocked in two runs to lead the way in a 5-1 triumph over the Royals.

Perkins (4-4) scattered 10 hits and allowed just one run to help the Twins to their fifth victory in their past seven games. The club completed a nine-game road trip with a 6-3 record.

"We're starting to play a little better," first baseman Justin Morneau told the team's official site afterward. "We could still hit better with runners in scoring position, but we're winning ballgames. We're finding a way to get it done, and a lot of that has to do with the pitching, which has been great on this road trip."

Morneau left Wednesday's contest in the seventh inning with a sore left groin but is expected to be in the lineup tonight. Shortstop Nick Punto, who was also removed in the seventh due to tightness in his lower back, is likely to be available as well.

Joe Mauer went 3-for-3 with an RBI single in Wednesday's win to raise his major league-leading average to .392. The All-Star catcher is batting a scorching .458 with nine home runs and 26 RBI in just 24 games at the Metrodome this season.

Tonight's matchup begins a nine-game homestand for Minnesota, whose 24-15 record at the Metrodome ranks among the best home marks in baseball. The team also gets to send out one of baseball's top winners in 2009 to the mound for this series opener, with Kevin Slowey ready to take aim at his 11th victory of the season.

Slowey carries an impressive 10-3 record into this evening's game, but two of those losses have come in his last four starts. The right-hander matched his shortest outing of the year in Sunday's 5-3 loss at St. Louis, where he was tagged for five runs and served up a pair of homers before being yanked after three innings.

A return home should benefit the 25-year-old, since he's 8-0 in nine Metrodome starts this season and allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last five appearances at his home park. One of those starts came against the Tigers on May 12, with Slowey firing six innings of one-run ball in a 6-2 win.

In four career encounters with Detroit, Slowey is 3-0 with a 4.57 earned run average.

The Tigers resume a nine-game road trip tonight and haven't fared too well thus far on the trek. After dropping two of three to the Houston Astros last weekend, Detroit only managed one win in its recent three-game set with the AL West cellar-dwelling Oakland Athletics.

Detroit's bats were stymied by the A's Dallas Braden in Wednesday's 5-1 defeat, with the left-hander limiting the Tigers to a run and five hits over the first seven innings.

"He went in and out, changed speeds," said Detroit manager Jim Leyland of Braden. "He pitched very well."

The Tigers were without third baseman Brandon Inge, the team's leader in RBI (52) and co-leader in home runs (18). The converted catcher sat out because of a sore left knee, but is expected to play tonight.

Detroit starter Justin Verlander (8-4) permitted four runs on a pair of homers in his six-inning stint to suffer the loss.

Rookie Luke French gets an audition for the fifth spot in the Tigers rotation in tonight's test. The young left-hander, an eighth-round selection by Detroit in the 2004 draft, earned a shot by going 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 13 starts for Triple-A Toledo.

French did appear in two games as a reliever for Detroit in mid-May and tossed three scoreless innings. The 23-year-old has been sharp lately for the Mud Hens, having surrendered just four runs and racking up 26 strikeouts in 23 innings over his past three starts.

Dontrelle Willis had been serving as the Tigers' fifth starter before being placed on the disabled list last month to work out a lingering anxiety disorder. He was then replaced by Alfredo Figaro, who was bombed for eight runs (7 earned) in six innings of a loss at Houston on Sunday.

The Twins swept a three-game series from Detroit at the Metrodome between May 12-14 and is 4-1 against the Tigers this season. Minnesota has also taken 10 of the past 14 overall meetings between the divisional foes.

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.


Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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