Road-weary Phils return home to host Mets

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies limp back home tied atop the NL East after a dreadful road trip. Tonight, they try to improve upon their horrific play in front of their own fans when they open a three-game series against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park.

Before the Phillies embarked on their recent nine-game trek, they had been an incredible 23-9 away from home. However, after losing six of nine on the trip, including an ugly three-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies find themselves tied with the Florida Marlins for first place in the division with the Mets just a game back and the Braves only two behind.

Philadelphia fell for the 12th time in its last 15 tries on Thursday, falling 5-2 to the Braves.

The Phillies, who managed just seven runs in the sweep by the Braves, have been awful offensively, as Jimmy Rollins' season-long slump culminated with an 0-for-28 stint that was snapped in Thursday's loss with the former NL MVP finishing 2-for-4. Ryan Howard has also had a tough go of it of late with just one home run in his last 14 games.

Going home, though, may not cure Philadelphia's woes, as the Phillies are a dreadful 13-22 this season at home, where they will play their next 10 games.

As if things were not bad enough, the Phillies turn tonight to a pitcher in Rodrigo Lopez, who has not made a major league start since July 26, 2007 when he was with Colorado.

Lopez, a two-time 15-game winner for the Baltimore Orioles, endured Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter and was sidelined all of last season. This year in 13 starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Lopez was 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA.

The Mets, meanwhile, saved themselves from a crushing loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, before finally pulling out a 9-8 decision in 10 innings at PNC Park.

New York fell behind 5-0, but scored the next eight runs to take an 8-5 advantage into the ninth. However, the usually reliable Francisco Rodriguez gave it all back, as the Pirates scored three times in the ninth to send the game to extra innings.

Fernando Tatis, who finished 3-for-4 with a two-run homer and scored four times, was hit by a Matt Capps pitch with two down in the 10th, stole second, then motored home as Ryan Church bounced a base hit up the middle to put the Mets ahead by a run.

Rodriguez (2-2) then sent the Bucs down in order to finish the game.

"I'm the kind of guy that if I make a mess, I clean it up," Rodriguez said. "I felt really frustrated that I didn't get the job done in the ninth, then we score and I go back out there in the 10th."

New York's win was its second straight following a five-game slide.

The Mets will hand the ball tonight to Livan Hernandez, who is 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA. Hernandez lost his second straight start on Sunday against the New York Yankees, as he allowed three runs and three hits in seven innings.

Hernandez has faced the Phillies 24 times and is 10-8 in those contests with a 3.36 ERA.

New York has won four of its seven matchups with the Phillies after winning 11 of the 18 meetings a year ago.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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